Friday, 27 April 2012

Oil Prices Press EU Inflation Lower


Inflation rates in four states dropped to 2% and below. Only inflation in Brandenburg remained above 2% (with 2.1%). As a result, German headline inflation should have dropped in April. Last month, German headline inflation stood at 2.1% YoY based on the national definition and 2.3% YoY based on the harmonised European definition. The April figure looks likely to get close to the ECB's definition of price stability.


Looking at the available components at the regional levels shows that lower inflation is mainly a result of lower oil prices. In fact, most other prices in the economy increased compared with last month. Nevertheless, there are rather "normal" price increases in an economy without severe problems than signs of second-round effects.


With a renewed weakening of the Eurozone economy and waning inflationary pressure in the Eurozone's economic powerhouse, the ECB looks likely to drop warnings about upside risks to price stability in the near term. The ECB tribute to the Bundesbank could have been short-lived.

by Carsten Brzeski, Senior Economist, ING Belgium, Apr 27, 2012 10:15 AM GMT+0100

Monday, 23 April 2012

Needed: French Flair And Dutch Courage


The first round of the French presidential elections and political turmoil in the Netherlands could mark the beginning of new controversies on the Eurozone’s crisis management. François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy are the two finalists of the French Presidentialelections with 28.5% and 27.1%. Negotiations between the losing candidates and the finalists are likely to be tense. Both Hollande and Sarkozy will now try to get as much support as possible from the losing candidates to win the runoff elections in two weeks. It looks as if François Hollande can probably obtain all support from the left wing without major problems...  READ MORE

by Carsten Brzeski, Senior Economist, ING Belgium, Apr 23, 2012 10:25 AM GMT+0100

Thursday, 19 April 2012

Tuesday, 27 March 2012

German Confidence Drops On Higher Fuel Costs

German consumer confidence dropped for the first time since September last year, indicating that higher energy and particularly fuel prices are increasingly making German consumers anxious. Today's GfK indicator dropped to 5.9, from 6.0. Looking at the March details shows that consumers are still optimistic about the economic outlook but have lowered their income expectations and willingness to buy.

by Carsten Brzeski, Senior Economist, ING Belgium

Read More...

Wednesday, 21 March 2012

Sarkozy - The Crisis, Moment

"This week’s tragedy may well remind the French of an earlier episode in Sarkozy’s career that first brought him to public attention. In 1993, while mayor of Neuilly-sur-Seine, France’s richest town, Sarkozy walked unarmed into a classroom and personally negotiated the release of children held hostage by a deranged man with an explosive belt, in what became known as the “human bomb” drama. It helped create the alpha male image that would eventually win Sarkozy massive popular support as France’s tough-talking interior minister in 2002-04 and 2005-07."

Full Article, The Telegraph 


Thursday, 15 March 2012

Potočnik Visits Brasilia Eco Reserve

Janez Potočnik, Member of the EC in charge of the Environment, visits the IBGE Ecological reserve, Brasilia. The IBGE Ecological reserve, located 35 km from downtown Brasilia, is one of the core areas of the Cerrado Biosphere Reserve created by UNESCO